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"What does AI mean for your business? Read this book to find out." -- Hal Varian, Chief Economist, Google
Artificial intelligence does the seemingly impossible, magically bringing machines to life--driving cars, trading stocks, and teaching children. But facing the sea change that AI will bring can be paralyzing. How should companies set strategies, governments design policies, and people plan their lives for a world so different from what we know? In the face of such uncertainty, many analysts either cower in fear or predict an impossibly sunny future.
But in Prediction Machines, three eminent economists recast the rise of AI as a drop in the cost of prediction. With this single, masterful stroke, they lift the curtain on the AI-is-magic hype and show how basic tools from economics provide clarity about the AI revolution and a basis for action by CEOs, managers, policy makers, investors, and entrepreneurs.
When AI is framed as cheap prediction, its extraordinary potential becomes clear:
- Prediction is at the heart of making decisions under uncertainty. Our businesses and personal lives are riddled with such decisions.
- Prediction tools increase productivity--operating machines, handling documents, communicating with customers.
- Uncertainty constrains strategy. Better prediction creates opportunities for new business structures and strategies to compete.
Penetrating, fun, and always insightful and practical, Prediction Machines follows its inescapable logic to explain how to navigate the changes on the horizon. The impact of AI will be profound, but the economic framework for understanding it is surprisingly simple.
Daron Acemoglu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Philippe Aghion, Collège de France
Ajay Agrawal, University of Toronto
Susan Athey, Stanford University
James Bessen, Boston University School of Law
Erik Brynjolfsson, MIT Sloan School of Management
Colin F. Camerer, California Institute of Technology
Judith Chevalier, Yale School of Management
Iain M. Cockburn, Boston University
Tyler Cowen, George Mason University
Jason Furman, Harvard Kennedy School
Patrick Francois, University of British Columbia
Alberto Galasso, University of Toronto
Joshua Gans, University of Toronto
Avi Goldfarb, University of Toronto
Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Rebecca Henderson, Harvard Business School
Ginger Zhe Jin, University of Maryland
Benjamin F. Jones, Northwestern University
Charles I. Jones, Stanford University
Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University
Anton Korinek, Johns Hopkins University
Mara Lederman, University of Toronto
Hong Luo, Harvard Business School
John McHale, National University of Ireland
Paul R. Milgrom, Stanford University
Matthew Mitchell, University of Toronto
Alexander Oettl, Georgia Institute of Technology
Andrea Prat, Columbia Business School
Manav Raj, New York University
Pascual Restrepo, Boston University
Daniel Rock, MIT Sloan School of Management
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Columbia University
Robert Seamans, New York University
Scott Stern, MIT Sloan School of Management
Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan
Joseph E. Stiglitz. Columbia University
Chad Syverson, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Matt Taddy, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Steven Tadelis, University of California, Berkeley
Manuel Trajtenberg, Tel Aviv University
Daniel Trefler, University of Toronto
Catherine Tucker, MIT Sloan School of Management
Hal Varian, University of California, Berkeley
Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy explores the economic impact of digitization, with each chapter identifying a promising new area of research. The Internet is one of the key drivers of growth in digital communication, and the first set of chapters discusses basic supply-and-demand factors related to access. Later chapters discuss new opportunities and challenges created by digital technology and describe some of the most pressing policy issues. As digital technologies continue to gain in momentum and importance, it has become clear that digitization has features that do not fit well into traditional economic models. This suggests a need for a better understanding of the impact of digital technology on economic activity, and Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy brings together leading scholars to explore this emerging area of research.