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About Graham Allison
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“Allison is one of the keenest observers of international affairs around.”— JOE BIDEN, former vice president of the United States
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap: when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one, violence is the likeliest result. Over the past five hundred years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times; war broke out in twelve. Today, as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America, and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries “great again,” the seventeenth case looks grim. A trade conflict, cyberattack, Korean crisis, or accident at sea could easily spark a major war.
In Destined for War, eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison masterfully blends history and current events to explain the timeless machinery of Thucydides’s Trap—and to explore the painful steps that might prevent disaster today.
“[A] must-read book in both Washington and Beijing.”— NIALL FERGUSON, BOSTON GLOBE
“[Allison is] a first-class academic with the instincts of a first-rate politician.”— BLOOMBERG NEWS
“[Full of] wide-ranging, erudite case studies that span human history . . . [A] fine book.”— NEW YORK TIMES BOOK REVIEW
When Lee Kuan Yew speaks, presidents, prime ministers, diplomats, and CEOs listen. Lee, the founding father of modern Singapore and its prime minister from 1959 to 1990, has honed his wisdom during more than fifty years on the world stage. Almost single-handedly responsible for transforming Singapore into a Western-style economic success, he offers a unique perspective on the geopolitics of East and West. American presidents from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama have welcomed him to the White House; British prime ministers from Margaret Thatcher to Tony Blair have recognized his wisdom; and business leaders from Rupert Murdoch to Rex Tillerson, CEO of Exxon Mobil, have praised his accomplishments. This book gathers key insights from interviews, speeches, and Lee's voluminous published writings and presents them in an engaging question and answer format.
Lee offers his assessment of China's future, asserting, among other things, that “China will want to share this century as co-equals with the U.S.” He affirms the United States' position as the world's sole superpower but expresses dismay at the vagaries of its political system. He offers strategic advice for dealing with China and goes on to discuss India's future, Islamic terrorism, economic growth, geopolitics and globalization, and democracy. Lee does not pull his punches, offering his unvarnished opinions on multiculturalism, the welfare state, education, and the free market. This little book belongs on the reading list of every world leader—including the one who takes the oath of office on January 20, 2013.
A leading strategist opens our eyes to the greatest terrorist threat of all-and how to prevent it before it's too late
Americans in the twenty-first century are keenly aware of the many forms of terrorism: hijackings, biological attacks, chemical weapons. But rarely do we allow ourselves to face squarely the deadliest form of terrorism, because it is almost too scary to think about-a terrorist group exploding a nuclear device in an American city.
In this urgent call to action, Graham Allison, one of America's leading experts on nuclear weapons and national security, presents the evidence for two provocative, compelling conclusions. First, if policy makers in Washington keep doing what they are currently doing about the threat, a nuclear terrorist attack on America is likely to occur in the next decade. And if one lengthens the time frame, a nuclear strike is inevitable. Second, the surprising and largely unrecognized good news is that nuclear terrorism is, in fact, preventable. In these pages, Allison offers an ambitious but feasible blueprint for eliminating the possibility of nuclear terrorist attacks.
The United States once relied on the threat of mutually assured destruction to deter the Soviet Union from launching a nuclear strike. But in today's fragmented world, a new strategy is needed, especially with nuclear material vulnerable to theft or sale through black-market channels.
The choice is ours: to grab this beast by the horns or to be impaled on those horns. We do not have the luxury of hoping the problem will go away, and Allison shows why.
Sia Xi Jinping che Donald Trump promettono di “far tornare grandi” i loro paesi. Ma a meno che la Cina non sia disposta a moderare le proprie ambizioni, o Washington non accetti di condividere il primato nel Pacifico, una guerra commerciale, un cyber-attacco o un incidente in mare potrebbero essere la scintilla che farà esplodere un altro grande conflitto.
In Destinati alla guerra, il professore emerito di Harvard Graham Allison indaga le diverse sfaccettature della contesa tra Stati Uniti e Cina attraverso la lente della trappola di Tucidide. Allison mostra come in passato una prudente e ingegnosa arte di governo sia riuscita a evitare la guerra, e quali dolorosi passi siano oggi necessari per evitare il disastro.
Attraverso una magistrale miscela di eventi storici e fatti odierni, il saggio di Allison non mira a predire il futuro, bensì a scongiurarlo.
«In Destinati alla guerra, Allison dipana una delle sfide più emblematiche della nostra epoca: gestire la relazione critica tra Cina e Stati Uniti».
Joe Biden, ex vicepresidente degli Stati Uniti
«Destinati alla guerra individua una sfida fondamentale per l’ordine mondiale: quale impatto ha una potenza emergente su una dominante. Ho letto questo libro con grande interesse».
Henry Kissinger, ex segretario di Stato degli Stati Uniti
«Senza dubbio i politici cinesi leggeranno gli avvertimenti di Allison sulla trappola di Tucidide. Vorrei solo essere altrettanto sicuro dei politici americani. In ogni caso ogni cittadino ben informato dovrebbe acquistare una copia di questo libro».