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Incerto 5-Book Bundle: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game by [Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

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Incerto 5-Book Bundle: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game Kindle Edition

4.8 out of 5 stars 247 ratings

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Editorial Reviews

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.

Chapter 1

Croesus, King of Lydia, was considered the richest man of his time. To this day Romance languages use the expression “rich as Croesus” to describe a person of excessive wealth. He was said to be visited by Solon, the Greek legislator known for his dignity, reserve, upright morals, humility, frugality, wisdom, intelligence, and courage. Solon did not display the smallest surprise at the wealth and splendor surrounding his host, nor the tiniest admiration for their owner. Croesus was so irked by the manifest lack of impression on the part of this illustrious visitor that he attempted to extract from him some acknowledgment. He asked him if he had known a happier man than him. Solon cited the life of a man who led a noble existence and died while in battle. Prodded for more, he gave similar examples of heroic but terminated lives, until Croesus, irate, asked him point-blank if he was not to be considered the happiest man of all. Solon answered: “The observation of the numerous misfortunes that attend all conditions forbids us to grow insolent upon our present enjoyments, or to admire a man’s happiness that may yet, in course of time, suffer change. For the uncertain future has yet to come, with all variety of future; and him only to whom the divinity has [guaranteed] continued happiness until the end we may call happy.”

The modern equivalent has been no less eloquently voiced by the baseball coach Yogi Berra, who seems to have translated Solon’s outburst from the pure Attic Greek into no less pure Brooklyn English with “it ain’t over until it’s over,” or, in a less dignified manner, with “it ain’t over until the fat lady sings.” In addition, aside from his use of the vernacular, the Yogi Berra quote presents an advantage of being true, while the meeting between Croesus and Solon was one of those historical facts that benefited from the imagination of the chroniclers, as it was chronologically impossible for the two men to have been in the same location.

Part I is concerned with the degree to which a situation may yet, in the course of time, suffer change. For we can be tricked by situations involving mostly the activities of the goddess Fortuna—Jupiter’s firstborn daughter. Solon was wise enough to get the following point; that which came with the help of luck could be taken away by luck (and often rapidly and unexpectedly at that). The flipside, which deserves to be considered as well (in fact it is even more of our concern), is that things that come with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness. Solon also had the intuition of a problem that has obsessed science for the past three centuries. It is called the problem of induction. I call it in this book the black swan or the rare event. Solon even understood another linked problem, which I call the skewness issue; it does not matter how frequently something succeeds if failure is too costly to bear.

Yet the story of Croesus has another twist. Having lost a battle to the redoubtable Persian king Cyrus, he was about to be burned alive when he called Solon’s name and shouted (something like) “Solon, you were right” (again this is legend). Cyrus asked about the nature of such unusual invocations, and he told him about Solon’s warning. This impressed Cyrus so much that he decided to spare Croesus’ life, as he reflected on the possibilities as far as his own fate was concerned. People were thoughtful at that time.

If You’re So Rich, Why Aren’t You So Smart?

An illustration of the effect of randomness on social pecking order and jealousy, through two characters of opposite attitudes. On the concealed rare event. How things in modern life may change rather rapidly, except, perhaps, in dentistry.

Nero Tulip

Hit by Lightning

Nero Tulip became obsessed with trading after witnessing a strange scene one spring day as he was visiting the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. A red convertible Porsche, driven at several times the city speed limit, abruptly stopped in front of the entrance, its tires emitting the sound of pigs being slaughtered. A visibly demented athletic man in his thirties, his face flushed red, emerged and ran up the steps as if he were chased by a tiger. He left the car double-parked, its engine running, provoking an angry fanfare of horns. After a long minute, a bored young man clad in a yellow jacket (yellow was the color reserved for clerks) came down the steps, visibly untroubled by the traffic commotion. He drove the car into the underground parking garage—perfunctorily, as if it were his daily chore.

That day Nero Tulip was hit with what the French call a coup de foudre, a sudden intense (and obsessive) infatuation that strikes like lightning. “This is for me!” he screamed enthusiastically—he could not help comparing the life of a trader to the alternative lives that could present themselves to him. Academia conjured up the image of a silent university office with rude secretaries; business, the image of a quiet office staffed with slow thinkers and semislow thinkers who express themselves in full sentences.

Temporary Sanity

Unlike a coup de foudre, the infatuation triggered by the Chicago scene has not left him more than a decade and a half after the incident. For Nero swears that no other lawful profession in our times could be as devoid of boredom as that of the trader. Furthermore, although he has not yet practiced the profession of high-sea piracy, he is now convinced that even that occupation would present more dull moments than that of the trader.

Nero could best be described as someone who randomly (and abruptly) swings between the deportment and speech manners of a church historian and the verbally abusive intensity of a Chicago pit trader. He can commit hundreds of millions of dollars in a transaction without a blink or a shadow of a second thought, yet agonize between two appetizers on the menu, changing his mind back and forth and wearing out the most patient of waiters.

Nero holds an undergraduate degree in ancient literature and mathematics from Cambridge University. He enrolled in a Ph.D. program in statistics at the University of Chicago but, after completing the prerequisite coursework, as well as the bulk of his doctoral research, he switched to the philosophy department. He called the switch “a moment of temporary sanity,” adding to the consternation of his thesis director, who warned him against philosophers and predicted his return back to the fold. He finished writing his thesis in philosophy. But not the Derrida continental style of incomprehensible philosophy (that is, incomprehensible to anyone outside of their ranks, like myself). It was quite the opposite; his thesis was on the methodology of statistical inference in its application to the social sciences. In fact, his thesis was indistinguishable from a thesis in mathematical statistics—it was just a bit more thoughtful (and twice as long).

It is often said that philosophy cannot feed its man—but that was not the reason Nero left. He left because philosophy cannot entertain its man. At first, it started looking futile; he recalled his statistics thesis director’s warnings. Then, suddenly, it started to look like work. As he became tired of writing papers on some arcane details of his earlier papers, he gave up the academy. The academic debates bored him to tears, particularly when minute points (invisible to the noninitiated) were at stake. Action was what Nero required. The problem, however, was that he selected the academy in the first place in order to kill what he detected was the flatness and tempered submission of employment life.

After witnessing the scene of the trader chased by a tiger, Nero found a trainee spot on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the large exchange where traders transact by shouting and gesticulating frenetically. There he worked for a prestigious (but eccentric) local, who trained him in the Chicago style, in return for Nero solving his mathematical equations. The energy in the air proved motivating to Nero. He rapidly graduated to the rank of self-employed trader. Then, when he got tired of standing on his feet in the crowd, and straining his vocal cords, he decided to seek employment “upstairs,” that is, trading from a desk. He moved to the New York area and took a position with an investment house.

Nero specialized in quantitative financial products, in which he had an early moment of glory, became famous and in demand. Many investment houses in New York and London flashed huge guaranteed bonuses at him. Nero spent a couple of years shuttling between the two cities, attending important “meetings” and wearing expensive suits. But soon Nero went into hiding; he rapidly pulled back to anonymity—the Wall Street stardom track did not quite fit his temperament. To stay a “hot trader” requires some organizational ambitions and a power hunger that he feels lucky not to possess. He was only in it for the fun—and his idea of fun does not include administrative and managerial work. He is susceptible to conference room boredom and is incapable of talking to businessmen, particularly the run-of-the-mill variety. Nero is allergic to the vocabulary of business talk, not just on plain aesthetic grounds. Phrases like “game plan,” “bottom line,” “how to get there from here,” “we provide our clients with solutions,” “our mission,” and other hackneyed expressions that dominate meetings lack both the precision and the coloration that he prefers to hear. Whether people populate silence with hollow sentences, or if such meetings present any true merit, he does not know; at any rate he did not want to be part of it. Indeed Nero’s extensive social life includes almost no businesspeople. But unlike me (I can be extremely humiliating when someone rubs me the wrong way with inelegant pompousness), Nero handles himself with gentle aloofness in these circumstances.
--This text refers to the hardcover edition.

About the Author

Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent two decades as a risk taker before becoming a full-time essayist and scholar focusing on practical and philosophical problems with chance, luck, and probability. His focus in on how different systems handle disorder. He now spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés. In addition to his life as a trader he spent several years as a Distinguished Professor at New York University’s School of Engineering and also as Dean’s Professor at U. Mass Amherst. Taleb’s books—Antifragile, Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan and The Bed of Procrustes—have more than one hundred translations in forty-one languages. --This text refers to the hardcover edition.

Product details

  • ASIN ‏ : ‎ B08M67TDPN
  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Random House (May 4, 2021)
  • Publication date ‏ : ‎ May 4, 2021
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • File size ‏ : ‎ 37497 KB
  • Text-to-Speech ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Enhanced typesetting ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • X-Ray ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Word Wise ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Print length ‏ : ‎ 1872 pages
  • Lending ‏ : ‎ Not Enabled
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.8 out of 5 stars 247 ratings

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent more than two decades as a risk taker before becoming a full-time essayist and scholar focusing on practical, philosophical, and mathematical problems with chance, luck, and probability. His focus in on how different systems handle disorder.

He now spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés. In addition to his life as a trader he spent several years as an academic researcher (12 years as Distinguished Professor at New York University's School of Engineering, Dean's Professor at U. Mass Amherst).

He is the author of the Incerto (latin for uncertainty), accessible in any order (Skin in the Game, Antifragile, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, and Fooled by Randomness) plus a technical version, The Technical Incerto (Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails). Taleb has also published close to 55 academic and scholarly papers as a backup, technical footnotes to the Incerto in topics ranging from Statistical Physics and Quantitative Finance to Genetics and International affairs. The Incerto has more than 200 translations in 41 languages.

Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport.

""Imagine someone with the erudition of Pico de la Mirandola, the skepticism of Montaigne, solid mathematical training, a restless globetrotter, polyglot, enjoyer of fine wines, specialist of financial derivatives, irrepressible reader, and irascible to the point of readily slapping a disciple." La Tribune (Paris)

A giant of Mediterranean thought ... Now the hottest thinker in the world", London Times

"The most prophetic voice of all" GQ

Customer reviews

4.8 out of 5 stars
4.8 out of 5
247 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

Reviewed in the United States on August 3, 2019
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4.0 out of 5 stars Incredible content, beautifully printed. Paper quality issues resolved.
Reviewed in the United States on August 3, 2019
Update 2: Other customers are still getting low quality paper. Quality control sucks, so buy at your own risk.

——
Update: looks like newer batches have sturdier paper quality, which means these live up to being Deluxe editions. Buy two: one for yourself and one to gift to a friend.

——————

The content of these books is incredible. Period.

However the paper used to print this incredible content is so thin that it makes it difficult to read due to interference from text on the other side.

Disappointing printing. Get the standard hard covers. Just get two copies of each book in case of a disaster or a ban.
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55 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on December 30, 2019
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1.0 out of 5 stars Priceless words, cheap paper. Still printed on see through paper Dec 2019. Nero deserves better!
Reviewed in the United States on December 30, 2019
I wanted this as a legacy to pass down to my son. The work and writings are that important to me but the paper is too cheap and transparent. I got a headache just looking at the pages for a few moments. Guess he will get my worn out copies of the paperbacks. Nero deserves better!
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34 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on July 31, 2019
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5.0 out of 5 stars Beautiful "Incerto"
Reviewed in the United States on July 31, 2019
This review is heavily focused on the physical product. There are loads of book reviews that go far more in depth for each book than I could begin to while also trying to cover all five. This compendium compiles the main body of work by scholar Nassim Taleb, who has famously (on twitter.com at least...) brought back a revival of the term "Lindy." Each book is a work in and of itself, but they all relate to a common theme. Taleb has referred to the structure of this set being fractal in nature; thus the reader can pick and choose which books to read in any order he likes. It will work as a cohesive whole in any order, and I think this is the meaning behind his choice of calling this an "Incerto." My only gripe with this beautiful box set is actually the box itself. It is FAR too tight and very difficult to pull out an individual book when full. I hope this goes away with use, but the issue is so serious that I damn near took away a "star" from this review. However, the beauty and quality of the books themselves far outweigh the stupid box issue, which could be thrown away anyways. As pictured, the individual volumes feature a unique pattern on the back as well as their number within the set - no spine titles. The color scheme is very regal and definitely makes a beautiful addition to any serious home library. They also feature a book tassel, which is just a QOL feature for some, but huge for me as I can never really keep track of bookmarks unless I use a dollar bill. Overall, I give the hardback Incerto a strong 8 to a light 9 out of ten, but will be giving it five stars on the Amazon scale. If you're looking to get into some interesting, current scholarship and philosophy, put down the Spinoza and give this Incerto a read...
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10 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on January 7, 2020
31 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on January 22, 2020
30 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on April 6, 2020
26 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on May 5, 2021
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5.0 out of 5 stars Great quality, no paper issues. (May 2021)
Reviewed in the United States on May 5, 2021
Reviewed May 2021. I was looking at set and was initially concerned about reviews and pictures showing the poor quality semi-transparent paper, yet seeing other reviews saying this problem was fixed.

I decided to take a chance on it with a great sale price (and with the intention to return if the quality was poor). I'm very pleased with the quality of the books and of the paper. They look great, feel great, and I'm ready to jump in on this 1,800 page journey!
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4 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on June 2, 2020
19 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

D. R. H.
1.0 out of 5 stars Now in a beautifully designed, cloth-bound deluxe hardcover boxed set - Are you kidding me?!
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 14, 2019
22 people found this helpful
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Chris Anderson
4.0 out of 5 stars Beautiful books and binding but could do with slightly better paper
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on February 24, 2021
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Chris Anderson
4.0 out of 5 stars Beautiful books and binding but could do with slightly better paper
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on February 24, 2021
The exterior is beautiful, with the box and the book covers made from a black fabric that is satisfying to hold. The gold inscription contrasts well and the bind quality is excellent.

The only negative is one also noted by others - the paper used is just a shade too thin, meaning that occasionally the text from the opposite page is visible. For me, this is only really noticeable on the pages which follow chapter headings (which have bigger and bolder type). The rest of the time I barely notice and it’s not enough to spoil the books for me by any means. I have included a picture of both a chapter page and a non chapter page so the reader can judge for themselves.

Reprint these with slightly higher quality paper and they will be a perfect collection for any Taleb fan
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Evgeniya
5.0 out of 5 stars A very pleasant embodiment of wonderful texts.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on February 23, 2020
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Evgeniya
5.0 out of 5 stars A very pleasant embodiment of wonderful texts.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on February 23, 2020
I am reviewing the set as a physical object, not the books as texts. The books are rather big, but not heavy, binding is smith-sewn, not glued. Paper is of decent enough quality and the books are definitely made to last and withstand multiple readings. Perhaps, I'd like the size of the font to be a bit larger. But on the whole I am very pleased with the quality of the set.
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3 people found this helpful
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Emir Afiya
5.0 out of 5 stars Lovely quality books, excellent author
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on October 9, 2019
2 people found this helpful
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Adam Price
5.0 out of 5 stars Well-made, great books
Reviewed in Canada on June 20, 2022
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