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About Michael Pillsbury
Senior Fellow and Director for Chinese Strategy Michael Pillsbury is a distinguished defense policy adviser, former high-ranking government official, and author of numerous books and reports on China, including most recently The Hundred Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace the United States as a Global Superpower. More information on the book is available at www.100yearmarathon.com. During the Reagan administration, Pillsbury was Assistant Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Planning and responsible for implementation of the program of covert aid known as the Reagan Doctrine. In 1975-76, while an analyst at the RAND Corporation, Pillsbury published articles in Foreign Policy and International Security recommending that the United States establish intelligence and military ties with China. The proposal, publicly commended by Ronald Reagan, Henry Kissinger, and James Schlesinger, later became U.S. policy during the Carter and Reagan administrations.
Pillsbury served on the staff of four U.S. Senate Committees from 1978-1984 and 1986-1991. As a staff member, Pillsbury drafted the Senate Labor Committee version of the legislation that enacted the US Institute of Peace in 1984. He also assisted in drafting the legislation to create the National Endowment for Democracy and the annual requirement for a DOD report on Chinese military power.
In 1992, under President George H. W. Bush, Pillsbury was Special Assistant for Asian Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, reporting to Andrew W. Marshall, Director of Net Assessment. Pillsbury is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Pillsbury is the author of China Debates the Future Security Environment (NDU Press, 2000) and editor of Chinese Views of Future Warfare (NDU Press, 1998).
Pillsbury was educated at Stanford University (B.A. in History with Honors in Social Thought) and Columbia University (M.A., Ph.D.).
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One of the U.S. government's leading China experts reveals the hidden strategy fueling that country's rise – and how Americans have been seduced into helping China overtake us as the world's leading superpower.
For more than forty years, the United States has played an indispensable role helping the Chinese government build a booming economy, develop its scientific and military capabilities, and take its place on the world stage, in the belief that China's rise will bring us cooperation, diplomacy, and free trade. But what if the "China Dream" is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot?
Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents, The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China's secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Michael Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, draws on his decades of contact with the "hawks" in China's military and intelligence agencies and translates their documents, speeches, and books to show how the teachings of traditional Chinese statecraft underpin their actions. He offers an inside look at how the Chinese really view America and its leaders – as barbarians who will be the architects of their own demise.
Pillsbury also explains how the U.S. government has helped – sometimes unwittingly and sometimes deliberately – to make this "China Dream" come true, and he calls for the United States to implement a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it really is, and not as we might wish it to be. The Hundred-Year Marathon is a wake-up call as we face the greatest national security challenge of the twenty-first century.
This issue - Fall/Winter 2012 - offers insights beyond the “revolution in military affairs, typified by new adversaries, new battlefields and new tactics. Today, the challenge is more profound than ever. New technologies have given non-state actors such as al-Qaeda an unprecedented ability to exert influence over nation-state behavior. Rogue nations such as Iran and North Korea increasingly exhibit extensive ballistic missile and nuclear capabilities and are actively seeking to acquire more. Meanwhile, strategic competitors (like Russia and China) are busy making major investments in everything from cyber capabilities to space warfare.
To address these questions, and others, The Journal leads off with a quintet of articles focusing on “The Future of Warfare.” Admiral William H. McRaven, the commander of United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), lays out how America’s special operators are augmenting security through a range of direct and indirect action and, in the process, expanding the ability of partner nations to do the same.
General Norton Schwartz, the recently retired Air Force Chief of Staff, explains the rationale behind the Pentagon’s new “Air-Sea Battle” concept, and outlines how it will help America confront new threats facing the U.S. and its allies.
Mark Schneider of the National Institute for Public Policy lays out the pressures now facing the U.S. arsenal—and the dire consequences that will result if America doesn’t get serious about its strategic capabilities. The George C. Marshall Institute’s Eric Sterner then makes a compelling case that Washington needs to get beyond rhetoric and begin to truly treat space as a new medium for conflict. Finally, Frank Cilluffo and J. Richard Knop of The George Washington University explain the changing nature of cyber threats to the U.S. homeland—and suggest a way forward for both cyber defense and cyber offense.
We then turn our attention to President Obama’s foreign policy record. The Legatum Institute’s Jeff Gedmin, a former Director of Radio Free Europe, leads off by looking at U.S. strategic communications—and where it is currently falling short. Jamie Fly and Evan Moore of the Foreign Policy Initiative take a critical look at the old thinking that animates the Obama administration’s approach to nuclear policy. Thomas Joscelyn of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies then takes aim at exactly what the White House has—and hasn’t—accomplished in the arena of counterterrorism. In turn, Andrew Davenport of RWR Advisory outlines our current approach to economic pressure, and explains why and how much more can be done.
From there, the American Foreign Policy Council’s Herman Pirchner underscores the missteps and that have plagued the Administration’s outreach toward Russia. Defense expert Mike Pillsbury does the same with China, outlining the misconceptions that continue to plague American policy toward the PRC. Last but not least, yours truly explains why the Administration’s approach has fallen short of addressing the menace posed by Iran and its nuclear program.
The “Perspective” interviewee is one of Washington’s consummate defense insiders, former Under Secretary of State and Pentagon Defense Science Board Chairman Dr. William Schneider, Jr. We also have “dispatches” examining developments in Chile, Turkey and Pakistan.
Concluding this edition are four important new works: on intelligence, the Arab world, international law and the unfolding Cold War between Israel and Iran.