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About Richard Duncan
Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington, D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis.
Richard is a consultant and speaker on issues related to the crisis in the global economy, in addition to his responsibilities as chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Management.
Richard Duncan's website can be found at http://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/
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The Dollar Crisis is divided into five parts:
Part One describes how the US trade deficits, which now exceed US$1 million a minute, have destabilized the global economy by creating a worldwide credit bubble.
Part Two explains why these giant deficits cannot persist and why a US recession and a collapse in the value of the Dollar are unavoidable.
Part Three analyzes the extraordinarily harmful impact that the US recession and the collapse of the Dollar will have on the rest of the world.
Part Four offers original recommendations that, if implemented, would help mitigate the damage of the coming worldwide downturn and put in place the foundations for balanced and sustainable economic growth in the decades ahead.
Part Five, which has been newly added to the second edition, describes the extraordinary evolution of this crisis since the first edition was completed in September 2002. It also considers how the Dollar Crisis is likely to unfold over the years immediately ahead, the likely policy response to the crisis, and why that response cannot succeed.
The Dollar Standard is inherently flawed and increasingly unstable. Its collapse will be the most important economic event of the 21st Century.
When the United States stopped backing dollars with gold in 1968, the nature of money changed. All previous constraints on money and credit creation were removed and a new economic paradigm took shape. Economic growth ceased to be driven by capital accumulation and investment as it had been since before the Industrial Revolution. Instead, credit creation and consumption began to drive the economic dynamic. In The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy, Richard Duncan introduces an analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explains all aspects of the calamity now unfolding: its causes, the rationale for the government's policy response to the crisis, what is likely to happen next, and how those developments will affect asset prices and investment portfolios.
In his previous book, The Dollar Crisis (2003), Duncan explained why a severe global economic crisis was inevitable given the flaws in the post-Bretton Woods international monetary system, and now he's back to explain what's next. The economic system that emerged following the abandonment of sound money requires credit growth to survive. Yet the private sector can bear no additional debt and the government's creditworthiness is deteriorating rapidly. Should total credit begin to contract significantly, this New Depression will become a New Great Depression, with disastrous economic and geopolitical consequences. That outcome is not inevitable, and this book describes what must be done to prevent it.
- Presents a fascinating look inside the financial crisis and how the New Depression is poised to become a New Great Depression
- Introduces a new theoretical construct, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that is the key to understanding not only the developments that led to the crisis, but also to understanding how events will play out in the years ahead
- Offers unique insights from the man who predicted the global economic breakdown
Alarming but essential reading, The New Depression explains why the global economy is teetering on the brink of falling into a deep and protracted depression, and how we can restore stability.
The global economy is in crisis. The financial system has failed, international trade has contracted sharply and unemployment has soared. Only a multi-trillion dollar government intervention is preventing a worldwide breakdown on the scale of the Great Depression.
In The Corruption of Capitalism, Richard Duncan provides a clear and comprehensive explanation of how this calamity came about. He also offers a strategy to permanently resolve it. The book is divided into three parts. Part I describes the present state of the global economy and the government life support keeping it afloat. Part II details the long series of US policy mistakes responsible for this disaster. Part III outlines the actions required to restructure the US economy and restore global economic growth.
Capitalism has been corrupted by paper money and debt. Sustainable prosperity will require a return to economic orthodoxy. This book maps the way back.